Weather update from CAFB

Forwarded from W5TXR on Aug 21

Two tropical depressions are forecasted to move into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. CAFB is expected to see some effects from both systems.

TD 14 is expected to become Tropical Storm Laura this morning and is forecast to make landfall as a low-end hurricane in Texas late Tuesday night. It has the greatest potential to cause severe weather to CAFB at this time with potential impacts of 30-40kt gusts and isolated tornadoes.

TD 13 is expected to become Tropical Storm Marco tomorrow. It is forecast to make landfall as a hurricane near Pensacola early Wednesday morning. There is a significant amount of uncertainty with this storm with a large amount of spread in the models regarding its intensity. It will help increase moisture over Mississippi and Alabama and will interact with TD 14.

There is a change that these two systems could have an interaction known as the “Fujiwhara effect” which is a phenomenon that occurs when two nearby cyclonic vortices (tropical systems in this case) close the distance between their circulations. They won’t merge, but the tracks of one or both systems could be impacted. It depends on the size and intensity of each circulation as they near each other in the Gulf, which is uncertain right now.

Considering the amount of uncertainty with how these systems will interact, the exact impacts for CAFB and MAFB are also uncertain. At the moment, we are expecting tropical storm force wind gusts (30-40kts) and a lot of rain Monday through Wednesday. There is potential for isolated tornadoes Monday/Tuesday as well, since we should be on the eastern side of TD 14.

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